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December 2019

Leveraging the opportunities arising from ambitious climate action

Climate change mitigation measures can have a number of positive synergies with other societal goals, referred to as "co-benefits". The following data highlights the potential synergies of Tanzania, United Republic of in case of sustained action to prevent climate change. The summary of the analysis is followed by more detailed background data.

Key findings

Opportunities for Tanzania, United Republic of
Savings potential in fuel import expenditures If Tanzania, United Republic of halved their spending on fuel imports by installing more domestic renewable energy capacity, it could in total save over 0.981 billion USD
Potential for improving energy access Share of rural population in Tanzania, United Republic of with access to electricity (2016): 16.90%
Share of Population with access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking: (2016): 2.16%
Job creation potential Estimated total job creation potential for illustrative scenario:
- in Operation and Maintenance: 5,839 to 13,571 jobs over the lifetime of the installations
- in Construction and Installation: 97,619 to 233,100 job years distributed over the construction period
Air quality and health benefits Estimated total number of people dying in from air pollution in Tanzania, United Republic of:
- from indoor air pollution (2016): 33,343
- from ambient air pollution (2016): 15,004

Background data tables

The following tables present the underlying data and sources. Blank cells indicate that data was not available.
source unit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
GDP PPP WDI2018 billion USD 31.41 33.88 39.09 44.41 48.22 45.63 47.39 52.09
Population WDI2018 millions 46.10 47.57 49.08 50.64 52.23 53.88 55.57 57.31
CO2 emission per capita WDI2018 kt CO2 / count 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.22 0.22

Energy Security

Energy systems infrastructure is built to remain for decades. Therefore, decisions on newly built infrastructure need to be considered carefully, to avoid lock-in effects and stranded assets, i.e. investments that are regretted at a later stage. The indicators below provide an overview the potential for synergies of a renewable energy roll-out.
source unit 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Energy Independence: Expenditures on fuel imports calculation billion USD 2.17 3.47 3.70 4.68 3.37 5.46 1.69 1.96
Energy Independence: Share of GDP spent on fuel imports calculation % 6.92 10.24 9.47 10.55 6.98 11.97 3.56 3.77
Energy Independence: Savings potential if halving current fuel imports calculation billion USD 1.09 1.74 1.85 2.34 1.68 2.73 0.84 0.98
Energy Access: Population with access to clean fuels and technologies for cooking WDI2018 % 1.66 1.74 1.85 1.93 2.00 2.15 2.16
Energy Access: Rural population with access to electricity WDI2018 % 3.70 4.10 3.60 4.20 4.25 9.00 16.90
Energy Access: Urban population with access to electricity WDI2018 % 46.20 42.90 46.40 50.30 51.69 51.90 65.30
Energy Access: Overall population with access to electricity WDI2018 % 14.80 14.20 15.30 16.40 18.91 18.50 32.80
Energy Access: Primary schools with access to electricity SDG_DB_2019 % 11.87 85.43
Reliability of electricity: Share of firms reporting to have been affected by power outage WDI2018 % 85.80
Reliability of electricity: Number of power outages in businesses in a typical month WDI2018 count 8.90
Reliability of electricity: Value in sales lost by affected businesses due to electrical outages WDI2018 % 15.10
Indicators for energy independence have been calculated based on data from the WDI on expenditures on fuel imports (% of merchandise), data on merchandise value and GDP (all in current USD).

Air pollution and health impacts

The table below shows indicators how Tanzania, United Republic of is currently affected by pollution and could benefit from clean and renewable energy
source unit 2016
Outdoor air pollution: Crude death rate from ambient air pollution SDG_DB_2019 1 / 100000 counts 27.00
Indoor air pollution: Crude death rate from household air pollution SDG_DB_2019 1 / 100000 counts 60.00
Outdoor air pollution: Total number of deaths due to outdoor air pollution calculation count 15,004.49
Indoor air pollution: Total number of deaths due to indoor air pollution calculation count 33,343.32
The total number of deaths from indoor and outdoor air pollution have been calculated based on the crude death rate and population data.

Jobs creation potential in Renewable Energy Deployment

Investing in renewable energy can contribute to creating local employment opportunities, such as jobs in construction and installation as well as jobs in operations and maintenance. The distributed nature of renewable energy technologies has great job creation potential also for rural areas. Illustrative calculation of the job potential if Tanzania, United Republic of covered the additional power generation needs of a doubling of their current electricity consumption by wind and solar only.

Job opportunities of wind

capacity increase Jobs years construction Jobs operation
low projection 845 MW 14,597.26 1,368.49
high projection 1478 MW 25,545.21 2,394.86

Job opportunities of solar

capacity increase Jobs years construction Jobs operation
low projection 1183 MW 83,021.92 4,470.41
high projection 2957 MW 207,554.79 11,176.03
Blank cells indicate that necessary data was missing for the country, so that the calculation could not be conducted.

Calculation of job potential based on employment factors

Based on capacity factors we calculate the capacity of solar PV and onshore wind to be newly installed for the additional electricity demand resulting from our scenario assumption, i.e. doubling current electricity demand. To account for a variation in capacity factors for wind and solar PV, we show a range, calculating the resulting MW added capacity for a pessimistic capacity factor (i.e. more MW needed to generate the required electricity) assuming a capacity factor of 10% for solar PV and 20% for onshore wind for all LDCs and an optimistic capacity factor (i.e. less MW needed to generate the required electricity) assuming a capacity factor of 25% for solar PV and 35% for onshore wind. To obtain job potential estimates, we apply employment factors for solar PV and onshore wind provided by Rutovitz, J., Dominish, E., & Downes, J. (2015). Calculating global energy sector jobs: 2015 Methodology Update. Prepared for Greenpeace International by the Institute for Sustainable Futures (UTS). Following the methodology suggested by Rutovitz el al. (2015), we multiply the base employment factors for OECD with region-specific multipliers to account for differences in productivity. For this, we use the regional multiplier for the year 2020. Jobs in Operation & Maintenance are calculated by multiplying the calculated MW newly installed capacity to results from our illustrative scenario with the employment factor for Operation and Maintenance. Likewise, jobs years in construction and installation are calculated by multiplying the calculated MW newly installed capacity to results from our illustrative scenario with the employment factor for construction and installation. Jobs in construction and installation are non-permanent and therefore estimated in job years.

References

Url
WDI2018 https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/dataset/world-development-indicators
SDG_DB_2019 https://unstats.un.org/sdgs/indicators/database/
IRENA_2019 http://www.irena.org/IRENADocuments/IRENA_RE_electricity_statistics_-_Query_tool.xlsm

IMPACT