The IPCC has released its Special Report on “the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty” (referred to as IPCC SR1.5).
The SR1.5 and its Summary for Policy Makers (SPM) contain a number of very clear and important messages, why it is in every country’s own interest to increase climate change mitigation efforts immediately.
The risks from climate change are projected to be considerably lower if we manage to limit global warming to 1.5°C instead of 2°C or even more:- Already differences in global mean temperature change of half a degree are projected to make an important difference in climate related risks due caused by changes in regional climate patterns. This includes hot extremes in most inhabited regions, heavy precipitation in several regions and the probability of drought and too little rain in some regions. (SR1.5 SPM B1, B1.1 - B1.3)
- Climate related risks to health, livelihoods, food security, water supply and economic development are expected to increase in a world with global warming of 1.5°C and be even higher in a world of 2°C of global warming. (SR1.5 SPM B5)
- The risk to marine biodiversity, fisheries and ecosystems is lower for limiting global warming to 1.5°C than for 2°C (SR1.5 SPM B4)
- Global warming is expected to have negative effects on health, with lower health risks at 1.5°C than at 2°C for heat-related death and illnesses. (SR 1.5 SPM B5.2)
- Global mean sea level rise by 2100 is expected to be around 0.1 metre lower with global warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C. (SR1.5 SPM B2)
- Global CO2 emissions caused by humans have to decline by about 45% by the year 2030 compared to 2010 levels, and by mid-century (2050) the world needs to achieve net zero CO2 emissions in order to not substantially overshoot 1.5°C of global warming. (SR1.5 SPM C1)
- In the electricity sector, renewable energy will need to supply 70-85% of energy needs while coal will need to be phased out completely by mid-century (SR1.5 SPM C2.2) While transformation must take place across all sectors, the electricity sector plays a very crucial role, as the decarbonization of other sectors, such as transportation, will require a stronger reliance on electricity from zero-carbon sources.
- The risks from climate change will more intensely affect small-island developing states, and least developed countries as well as disadvantages and vulnerable population groups, some indigenous peoples, and local communities dependent on agricultural or coastal livelihoods. (SR1.5 SPM B5.1)
- The negative impacts of climate change on sustainable development, including on poverty and inequality, are lower for 1.5°C than for 2°C, if synergies in climate action and adaptation to climate change are taken advantage of and trade-offs are well-managed. (SR1.5 SPM D2)
- There are many synergies as well as trade-off for climate change mitigation options to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The total number of possible synergies is higher than the number of identified trade-offs, yet the design of mitigation actions as well as the management of the transition play an important role for the overall effect. (SR1.5 SPM D4)
The figure below from the IPCC SR 1.5 SPM (Figure SPM.4) illustrates potential synergies and trade-off of climate change mitigation action with regard to the Sustainable Development Goals (SGDs) (click to enlarge).
Figure SPM.4: Potential synergies and trade-offs between the sectoral portfolio of climate change mitigation options and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The SDGs serve as an analytical framework for the assessment of the different sustainable development dimensions, which extend beyond the time frame of the 2030 SDG targets. The assessment is based on literature on mitigation options that are considered relevant for 1.5°C. The assessed strength of the SDG interactions is based on the qualitative and quantitative assessment of individual mitigation options listed in Table 5.2. For each mitigation option, the strength of the SDG-connection as well as the associated confidence of the underlying literature (shades of green and red) was assessed. The strength of positive connections (synergies) and negative connections (trade-offs) across all individual options within a sector (see Table 5.2) are aggregated into sectoral potentials for the whole mitigation portfolio. The (white) areas outside the bars, which indicate no interactions, have low confidence due to the uncertainty and limited number of studies exploring indirect effects. The strength of the connection considers only the effect of mitigation and does not include benefits of avoided impacts. SDG 13 (climate action) is not listed because mitigation is being considered in terms of interactions with SDGs and not vice versa. The bars denote the strength of the connection, and do not consider the strength of the impact on the SDGs. The energy demand sector comprises behavioural responses, fuel switching and efficiency options in the transport, industry and building sector as well as carbon capture options in the industry sector. Options assessed in the energy supply sector comprise biomass and non-biomass renewables, nuclear, CCS with bio-energy, and CCS with fossil fuels. Options in the land sector comprise agricultural and forest options, sustainable diets & reduced food waste, soil sequestration, livestock & manure management, reduced deforestation, afforestation & reforestation, responsible sourcing. In addition to this figure, options in the ocean sector are discussed in the underlying report.
